Indian automakers shift gears to reclaim Africa’s fast-growing auto market

moodys

When you travel through the bustling streets of Lagos, Nairobi, or Kampala, one name often roars past - Boxer. The rugged motorbike from Indian OEM Bajaj Auto has long been the trusted workhorse for millions of riders across Africa, ferrying passengers, goods, and dreams with equal reliability. Its dominance became a symbol of how Indian automakers could understand and serve the unique needs of African consumers.

“The Boxer is like a family member,” laughs John Okello, a rider in Nairobi who has used his Bajaj bike for over a decade. “It’s strong, it’s cheap to maintain, and it gives me food on the table.”

Stories like John’s reveal the long-standing connection between Indian automakers and Africa. Decades ago, Indian manufacturers discovered that their vehicles – practical, durable, and affordable – resonated deeply with African consumers.

Now, years after such early successes, Indian auto OEMs are once again setting their sights on Africa - this time with a broader push to passenger cars and commercial vehicles, re-entering old markets and expanding into new ones.

Big Indian brands renew their bet on the African market

Though home to 1.4 billion people, Africa has long been a difficult prize for Indian automakers. Low incomes, high import duties, and fragmented markets have historically discouraged bold expansion. Yet, the story is changing. Rising incomes, the steady emergence of a middle class, and strong economic growth - with seven of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies located in Africa - are turning the continent into the next frontier for the global automotive industry.

While Japan, Germany, and the US remain the top exporters of vehicles to Africa, India has been quietly but steadily carving out a larger role. The Indian presence is not new. Bajaj, TVS, Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, and Tata have all left their mark over decades, supplying affordable, durable vehicles that match African market needs.

Bajaj motorcycles, for instance, remain iconic workhorses from Kampala to Lagos, while Mahindra tractors and SUVs are familiar in rural landscapes. Tata, for its part, has long supplied trucks and buses to markets such as South Africa and Kenya.

Now, the pace is quickening. Just last week, Tata Motors announced its re-entry into Africa after a six-year hiatus, in partnership with Motus Holdings. Within days of the announcement, the first shipment of 485 vehicles, including popular models such as the Harrier, Tiago, Curvv, and Punch, landed at Durban Port in South Africa.

Yash Khandelwal, Head of International Business at Tata Motors, underlined the significance: “South Africa is an important market in our global expansion journey. We are here to offer South African customers a choice of vehicles that are safe, stylish, and innovation-driven.”

India’s renewed automotive push is underpinned by a manufacturing story that is hard to ignore. The country has become a powerhouse in global vehicle exports. According to SIAM, automobile exports from India rose 19% to over 5.3 million units in 2024–25, driven by strong overseas demand for passenger cars, two-wheelers, and commercial vehicles.

Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) President Shailesh Chandra remarked: “Export demand in markets such as Africa and neighbouring countries is likely to continue as ‘Made in India’ vehicles are gaining traction.”

Mahindra, another familiar name, is also steadily expanding its footprint in Africa. With an assembly line already operating in Durban, the Indian automaker has been recognised as South Africa’s fastest-growing brand in 2022.

According to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA), its local subsidiary set multiple records during the year, underscoring the brand’s rising momentum in the market.

Maruti Suzuki, India’s largest carmaker, is also sharpening its African focus. In 2024–25, South Africa emerged as Maruti’s single largest export market. Between April and May alone, the company shipped 59,130 cars, with South Africa accounting for a remarkable 27% of exports. The company relies on Suzuki’s established dealership network across Africa, offering popular Indian-made models such as the Swift, Baleno, Fronx, and Dzire.

These cars are prized for being fuel-efficient, affordable, and reliable. As Suzuki executives told analysts: “Indian-made models such as Swift, Baleno, Fronx, and Dzire, which are fuel-efficient, affordable and durable, are popular in South Africa.”

Maruti’s partnership with Toyota has further expanded its footprint. Under this arrangement, Maruti-produced vehicles are exported from India and sold under Toyota branding. South African buyers, for instance, can purchase the Toyota Starlet (Maruti Baleno), Toyota Vitz (Maruti Celerio), or Toyota Rumion (Maruti Ertiga).

The collaboration also stretches into East Africa, where Toyota’s extensive dealership and after-sales networks in Kenya amplify Suzuki’s reach. It is an elegant strategy: Indian-made cars benefit from Toyota’s credibility while Suzuki leverages distribution channels it could not have built alone.

Industry observers stress that India’s competitive edge in Africa stems from more than just low costs. Rajat Mahajan, Partner and Automotive Sector Leader at Deloitte India, explains: “India is an important manufacturing hub and is a global exporter of cars. GCC countries (UAE, KSA and Kuwait, etc), South Africa, Mexico, and Japan are amongst the top destinations for India-manufactured cars. Global OEMs are also using India as an export hub, given the mature supply base and geographic advantage.”

The structural advantage is clear: India combines economies of scale, a deep supply chain, and geographic proximity to Africa, which makes shipping cheaper and quicker than from East Asia or Europe.

As Priyam Garg of GlobalData puts it: “India is like the sweet spot. It combines low-cost production with quality that matches international standards. This makes Indian exports very appealing to African buyers, who need affordability without compromising on durability.”

Global automakers have recognised this too, increasingly using India as a base to serve African demand. Yet Indian brands enjoy a unique advantage: decades of on-the-ground familiarity. From two-wheelers that transformed daily commutes to tractors that mechanised rural farming, Indian manufacturers have cultivated trust in African markets.

That heritage, now reinforced by India’s growing export muscle, positions them to play a much larger role in the continent’s automotive future.

Rising demand for mobility in Africa

Rising incomes, rapid urbanisation, and the emergence of a middle class are steadily reshaping Africa into the new frontier for the global automotive industry. Yet, despite its vast potential, the continent’s automotive market remains underdeveloped. Africa contributes less than 1% of global vehicle production - a strikingly small share for a region with a population of 1.4 billion.

The motorisation rate tells its own story. Between 2016 and 2020, Africa had only around 43 vehicles per 1,000 people, compared to the global average of 197. The disparity is stark. And while the number of registered vehicles has climbed since 2014 - when the total stood at just over 42.5 million - it remains only a fraction of the continent’s latent demand.

Paradoxically, Africa also records the world’s highest road fatality rates, underscoring the urgent need for safer, more modern vehicles.

Three countries dominate Africa’s automotive landscape: South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco. South Africa boasts an advanced infrastructure and a formidable manufacturing base. Morocco has positioned itself as a key exporter, especially to European markets, while Egypt combines strong domestic demand with expanding production capacity.

Beyond these hubs, markets such as Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana are beginning to gain momentum, hinting at the next wave of automotive growth.

But the reality is that, outside these established players, local manufacturing is negligible. Imports fill the gap. And in this space, overseas OEMs - particularly from India, China, and Japan - have carved out dominance.

Their success is no accident. “Overseas OEMs, especially from India, China, and Japan, offer vehicles at price points suited for Africa’s large middle and lower-income segments,” explains Chimere Kamau, an automobile analyst based in Nairobi.

Japanese brands like Toyota, Nissan, and Honda have built trust by proving their durability, fuel efficiency, and reliability in some of the world’s toughest driving conditions. These qualities make them indispensable in Africa, where pothole-ridden roads, scarce spare parts, and fuel constraints present daily challenges for drivers.

Indian automakers eye rising African middle class

At the heart of the opportunity is Africa’s rising middle class. The African Development Bank estimates that more than 350 million Africans now fall into this category. As urbanisation accelerates, more households are aspiring to own their first vehicle.

The past two decades have brought greater macroeconomic stability across much of the continent, marked by falling inflation and steady growth. Studies suggest that the coming decades could deliver even more dramatic improvements. With its vast population and positive economic outlook, automakers that adopt a medium- to long-term perspective are well placed to secure an advantage.

“Most Africans are first-time car buyers,” notes Dr. Elias Nwosu, an economics professor at the University of Lagos. “They want something affordable, reliable, and easy to maintain. That’s where Indian cars, two-wheelers, and trucks fit in beautifully.”

Regional and global trade is also providing a lift to GDP across key African nations. “Growing middle class in African countries is looking for affordable value for money options and Indian players fit the bill offering competitive products,” says Rajat. “South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and several other key markets with potential demand are seeing increased interest from Indian, Japanese and Chinese OEMs.”

Indian automakers are taking notice. Maruti Suzuki is developing export models designed for first-time buyers. Mahindra is positioning its SUVs and utility vehicles for markets where road conditions demand sturdier builds. And Ashok Leyland is aligning with Africa’s infrastructure boom, seeing opportunities in commercial transport.

The appetite for cars is already visible on the ground. “Five years ago, very few of my neighbours owned a car. Today, at least three or four families have bought second-hand Toyotas or Nissans,” says Grace Ndlovu, a schoolteacher in Lusaka, Zambia. “People want more convenience and status. Everyone is saving for a car.”

Growing competition from Chinese OEMs

Indian OEMs now face a fresh challenge from Chinese competitors, who are rapidly making inroads into the African market with low-cost vehicles. With Europe imposing hefty duties on Chinese EVs and the US levying tariffs of up to 100%, Africa has emerged as the next frontier.

Companies such as BYD, Chery Auto, and Great Wall Motors are leveraging their aggressive price points to capture market share, using South Africa as the launchpad for a continent-wide strategy.

“We treat South Africa as a very important market for our global expansion,” said Tony Liu, CEO of Chery South Africa, speaking to Reuters. “We see South Africa as a gateway to the African continent.”

The speed of entry is striking. Of the 14 Chinese automakers now present in Africa, half entered the market only last year. More are on the way, with DongFeng, Leapmotor, Dayun, and Changan preparing launches in the coming months. Their playbook mixes EVs and hybrids, alongside a broad portfolio ranging from sedans to SUVs and crossovers.

Beyond sales, Chinese companies are eyeing local production and assembly lines. Chery, for instance, is exploring partnerships or its own manufacturing facility in South Africa, with ambitions to serve the wider region. Others, long content with imports due to cost advantages, are now reassessing local manufacturing to further cut prices.

Still, challenges remain. African consumers remain sceptical about the durability of Chinese vehicles, the availability of spare parts, and long-term reliability. Overcoming this trust gap will be critical if Chinese OEMs are to turn their rapid entry into lasting dominance.

South Africa: A gateway for pan-Africa push

South Africa has long stood out as the natural entry point for automakers eyeing the African continent. With a relatively well-developed automotive ecosystem, the country is home to established global players like Volkswagen and Toyota, which together produced close to 600,000 vehicles last year.

For international brands, South Africa is often the first stop before expanding across the continent, thanks to its infrastructure, stable supply chains, and export-ready facilities.

India has emerged as the leading source of vehicle imports for South Africa, a position it has consistently held since 2013. Indian OEMs Tata and Mahindra, in particular, have entrenched themselves in the local market. Mahindra has even described South Africa as its “second home” outside of India, underlining this with major investments, including a production line in Durban.

“South Africa’s share of India’s total passenger car exports has consistently been close to 15–18%, and it also acts as a hub for pan-Africa distribution. Africa has always been an important geography for Indian OEMs and auto component players. They have been supplying and investing in the African market for a while now,” notes Deloitte India’s Rajat.

As South Africa also plays an active role in the BRICS bloc, its importance is amplified - not just as a regional hub, but as a strategic platform for emerging economies working to reshape global automotive trade flows.

BRICS plays its part

South Africa’s membership in BRICS has added a new dimension to its automotive trade equation. After joining the grouping in 2010, the country saw a notable rise in automotive exports to all four partner nations within just a year. Between 2010 and 2023, imports of vehicles from India, China, and Brazil surged significantly, according to the BRICS+ Research Report 2024 by the Automotive Business Council.

The bloc’s expansion into BRICS+ from January 2024, bringing in additional large economies, is expected to further reshape global trade patterns. For the automotive industry in particular, the report highlights, the enlarged grouping could accelerate cross-border flows of vehicles, components, and investments, strengthening South Africa’s role as both a gateway and a beneficiary of shifting global supply chains.

Used vehicles still rule the road

Despite the optimism, Africa’s auto market continues to be dominated by second-hand imports from Europe, Japan, and the Middle East. With low disposable incomes, used cars remain the most affordable option for most consumers. The African used car market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.65% between 2024 and 2030, according to Mordor Intelligence, underscoring the region’s reliance on affordability and accessibility.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, more than 80% of imported vehicles are pre-owned, with Kenya seeing as high as 96%. Japanese SUVs and sedans dominate thanks to their durability, ease of maintenance, and strong parts ecosystem. Over time, this demand has evolved into a structured and deeply entrenched marketplace.

Indian automakers are aware of this challenge. Success stories like Bajaj, which priced its two-wheelers only slightly above used imports while delivering greater reliability, show that affordability can open doors. Replicating this strategy in four-wheelers - through competitive pricing, financing options, or local assembly - could unlock significant growth.

“Used cars are like the gatekeepers of Africa’s auto market,” says Chimere. “If Indian OEMs can break that barrier, they can change the game.”